(1)               Developments in Iraq’s immediate neighbourhood – which I call Group I – will also impact on the wider region which, with the exception of India, has an Islamic culture and heritage (Group II).

In the wake of 11 September 2001, the Western countries must recognise that in this region too, there is no alternative to dialogue with Islam. As part of this dialogue, the West must grasp the multi-faceted nature of Islamic reality. This includes one key question: which steps must be taken by Muslims and non-Muslims to enable groups from different cultures and with different religions to live together on the basis of democracy and the rule of law? In this context, the West is confronted with mass poverty and grave social disparities, coupled with an economic system which favours the Western countries. If we bring the issue of terrorism into the equation, our thoughts turn to Morocco and Algeria as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan. Terrorism can only be combated effectively by ending the economic and social injustice in the countries of this region and building democratic structures. There are alternatives to terrorism, but there are no alternatives to intercultural and interreligious dialogue. Conducting this dialogue in all countries of the wider region is the basis for combating terrorism and violent extremism, also at global level.

Afghanistan is a key focus of attention. Pakistan and the former CIS states are also important. Stabilizing democracy is a long-term process. The parliamentary elections on 18 September are part of this stabilization process. Their vulnerability goes hand in hand with instability. The Atlantic Alliance’s credibility is being demonstrated in Afghanistan. Both partners – the USA and the EU – are joining forces to reconstruct the country. They are working to build new political institutions. Despite all the difficulties, they are combating the warlords, drug-trafficking and the newly emerging Taliban cells. Thanks to our experiences in Iraq and our decades as a community of shared values, we are able to provide political, economic and security support for Afghanistan. This will continue for many years. Afghanistan’s improved economic performance is especially worthy of note. One problem is that Afghanistan produces 90% of the world's illegal supplies of opium. For many farmers, opium production is the basis of their economic survival. The payment of compensation for the destruction of poppy fields is proceeding very slowly. Controlled cultivation of opium in Afghanistan could make economic sense. This would be viable in light of the annual demand for around 10,000 tonnes of medical opiates worldwide.

The international security presence in Afghanistan must be reorganized and coordinated. This means integrating the US and Allied chains of command. A prerequisite for this process is that in response to the growing security risks in the country, proper shielding and support must be provided for ISAF operations. Furthermore, centralized coordination is required in response to the constantly changing situation in Afghanistan. More rapid delivery of troops and materials, especially helicopters and vehicles, is also required. This in turn will depend on joint financing of NATO operations through a levy paid by all the Alliance countries. It should apply to all NATO members whether or not they are supplying troops or materials for ISAF operations.

Pakistan is an important partner in the efforts to rebuild Afghanistan and combat global extremism. President Musharraf’s commitment is apparent from his decision to close refugee camps on the border with Afghanistan. This is an important step along the course which Pakistan has pursued in the fight against international terrorism and Al-Qaeda since 11 September 2001. The Kashmir conflict poses a significant risk to stability in the region, for India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. It is therefore especially important to strengthen Pakistan’s role as an ally against terrorism.

Despite an “improvement in relations”, Pakistan’s relations with India are still marked by mistrust. The justification for its test-firing of a nuclear-capable missile in early August demonstrated this clearly. Pakistan could have provided advance notice of the test to its neighbouring country.

Let’s cast a glance at Bangladesh. The wave of bomb attacks in mid August has fuelled concerns about the rise of Islamism. The Islamist group Jama’atul Mujaheddin Bangladesh (JMB) – whose leader Bangla Bhai is one of the country’s most wanted terrorists – has claimed responsibility. In its leaflets, the JMB calls for the establishment of a Taliban state in Bangladesh. As one of the world’s poorest countries, Bangladesh is a fertile breeding ground for fundamentalists.

The former CIS states also play a role in consolidating democracy in Afghanistan. Their political leaderships are generally unstable. Conflicts can flare up quickly and without warning. The unrest in Uzbekistan in early summer and the massacre of civilians in the city of Andijan by the Karimov regime bear this out. Relations with the USA cooled when America voiced criticism of Karimov’s handling of the situation and called for an international inquiry. The future of US bases in the region, which have been used as a hub for US-led coalition missions in Afghanistan against the Taliban regime, is uncertain. On 31 July 2005, the Government of Uzbekistan requested the US to withdraw all its military forces from the Karshi-Khanabad air base. Uzbekistan gave the US 180 days to move its military equipment and personnel out of the base. This action by the Government of Uzbekistan demonstrates the possible consequence of criticizing human rights violations in any country in this region. The key priority is to be able to continue to use the bases to provide effective support to US and NATO operations in Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan’s assurances that it will allow coalition forces to continue using Manas military base near the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, for the time being is an encouraging sign. The efforts by the West and the Alliance to promote democracy and combat terrorism are thus receiving important backing in the cooperation with countries in the region.

Influence is being brought to bear on the situation in the Central Asian republics and CIS states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Democratic and economic development in these countries is being encouraged. This is bound to have an influence on the Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia as well.

(9)       The occupation and pacification of Iraq and Afghanistan and the impacts on the wider region must be viewed in the context of a transregional spectrum (Group III). They are an ongoing commitment which will absorb tens of thousands of US troops, further NATO contingents and billions of dollars in future and will involve some degree of political risk which cannot be calculated precisely. The campaign against global extremism and terrorism – which affect the region from North Africa’s Atlantic coast to Indonesia and also include Europe, as the attacks in Madrid in 2004 and London in July 2005 have shown – can only be won if the opportunities afforded by the democratic international community under the rule of law are presented and communicated convincingly. This entails the political, economic and social opening of the closed societies in the Arab-Muslim world. However, this objective can only be achieved if democracy and the market economy, the guarantee of human rights and minority protection take root in a region which – compared with the West – has considerable ground to make up in terms of its modernization. It also has a high level of population growth. Economic consolidation could be supported politically by a process akin to the CSCE/OSCE. Similar to the Barcelona Process launched in 1995, which was based on the CSCE process, a “Crisis Region Mediterranean Process PLUS” could be initiated, extending beyond the region and with global impacts. Democratic, market-economic development based on confidence-building measures would be introduced.

The region, which includes the EU, the Maghreb countries and the Middle East, could serve as a model of best practice in a wider geographical context. The development of a political and security partnership and the establishment of a free trade area in the next ten years could speed up social and cultural progress. Through contact with civil society, the way would be clear for freedom and the rule of law in the partner countries.

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